Poll: Kirschner & Gruters in Dead Heat in FL-16

Kirschner leads 40–39 in a district where the Republican brand starts up six

ST. PETERSBURG, FL — Democrat Kelly Kirschner leads Republican Sydney Gruters 40% to 39% in a new survey of Florida’s 16th Congressional District.

Download Poll Results (PDF)

The live interviewer/text to web poll was conducted by SEA Research & Political Design from August 25 to 29 and surveyed 400 respondents across the newly drawn 16th Congressional District which spans from St. Petersburg to Arcadia. Republicans represent 47% of the universe, Democrats 34% and voters with no major party affiliation, 19%. The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.

“People aren’t confused about what’s wrong. They’re frustrated that nothing is getting done to fix what’s broken and make their lives a little easier because politicians are too busy enriching themselves instead of working for us. When Kelly Kirschner was Mayor, he stood up to Florida Power & Light, exposed bad deals for taxpayers and took on powerful special interests. That’s what people want to see in their next Congressman, not another political insider looking for a payday,” said campaign spokesman, Charlie Goldstein.

“Developers, utilities, donors, and political committees get the access and the favorable treatment. Residents get the insurance bills, the unmanaged growth, the flood risk, and the higher utility rates.”

The poll was conducted after the Republican and Democratic primaries where Sydney Gruters spent almost a half million dollars from her campaign and received over $2,000,000 of outside support. That money does not appear to have helped her prospects in the general election against Kirschner.

Kirschner is leading in a district where Republicans carry a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 43%. He is running roughly seven points ahead of the party brand because voters in FL-16 have concluded the system is rigged: corruption in government (41%) and the cost of living (40%) are the district’s top two concerns.

Every step of information moves this race toward Kirschner. When voters heard balanced biographies of both candidates, Kirshner’s lead widens to 47–44. His message is very convincing to 48% of the district — including 56% of NPAs and 46% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Kirschner has a strong record of taking on powerful interests and winning. He’s a third-generation Floridian and former Sarasota Mayor who challenged powerful interests, passing local campaign finance reform approved by over 80% of voters, winning concessions from the electric utility, and recovering millions of dollars for taxpayers from a city Marina lease. In Congress, he will work to reduce the influence of big money and special interests, and protect Social Security and Medicare.

Methodology: Survey of 400 registered FL-16 voters self-described as likely 2026 general election voters, conducted by SEA Research & Political Design from August 25–29, 2026 by live telephone interview supplemented with Text-to-Web (TTW) online surveys. Voter model: 34% Democratic, 47% Republican, 19% NPA. Manatee County 53%, Pinellas County 35%, other counties 12%. Margin of error ±4.9%

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About Kelly Kirschner

Kelly Kirschner is a third-generation Floridian, former Sarasota Mayor and Commissioner, Returned Peace Corps volunteer (Guatemala), former Vice President & Dean of Executive & Continuing Education at Eckerd College, and co-founder of area non-profit, UnidosNow.

He is running for Florida’s 16th Congressional District on a platform of lowering costs and putting constituents ahead of special interests.

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